Dan’s Weather Dialogue

That's the million dollar question as I write this blog late Friday night. It does appear a majority of computer models are favoring a landfall on the central coast of Louisiana early next week. One of the big determining factors will be a developing ridge of high pressure to the north of Gustav over the eastern U.S. At the present time, it appears a weakness in the ridge will allow Gustav to continue a northwest track toward Louisiana. If the ridge is stronger and builds farther south toward the central Gulf coast, Gustav could be steered farther west, closer to Texas. At this point, it appears like much of Florida is "out of the mix". As far as how strong Gustav will be at landfall...again, there is some uncertainty. As of right now, it appears a distinct possibility that Gustav will achieve Category 4 status at some point in the Gulf of Mexico, and possibly even Cat 5 status. What typically tends to happen though is as the hurricane moves closer to shore, the depth of warm water decreases, and the storm loses a bit of its punch. That was the case with Rita and Katrina. However, it's not as clear cut as that. There are many other factors such as wind shear, dry air that can be sucked into the storm, and the changeable inner dynamics of the storm that can all have an impact on the hurricane's intensity. All North Texans are urged to keep an eye on Gustav as it could eventually move into East Texas as a tropical storm by the middle of next week. Stay with FOX 4...We'll keep you 4-Warned!