Marks Blog

Hmmm...looks like this year is shaping up to be much more competitive for Republicans than conventional wisdom suggested just weeks ago. While this may simply be the typical bounce expected after a national party convention, it is not likely to be unrelated to the media response to John McCain's running mate; Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. I see her as real, the media views her as a puzzle that must be deconstructed, if not simply destroyed. Why is that?

In one fell swoop (and with the help of hurricane Gustov), McCain effectively separated himself from President George Bush. Yes, he is still a Republican, as is the current President. But in choosing Palin, McCain went in a very different direction than any recent presidential ticket has: McCain picked someone who is of the middle class. Oh, and she is a woman...during the year that featured a woman running for the presidential nomination of the Democratic party. That woman, Hillary Clinton, nearly won the nomination. That woman, Hillary, was passed over for the second slot in her party's nomination in favor of a man who has spent 36 years learning how to hide government salami from taxpayers. McCain has never been one to avoid a fight on the issue of exposing government largesse with taxpayer funds.

Is this a long-term trend? I'm speaking about the "bounce" and not the above paragraph. In this presidential election of firsts, where we saw McCain go from worst-to-first in the primary, Obama defeated a more experienced Hillary Clinton and became the first person of African-American heritage to be nominated by one of our two great (proportionately speaking) political parties, and a woman who accepted the vice presidential nomination for the Republican ticket - Hollywood couldn't have scripted a political movie with this many twists of historic proportions and political animals such as myself are either enjoying or fretting, depending on the candidate/party of choice - I can't say. Tomorrow is another day, next week is an eternity in a political race.

I will attempt to place this election in context with other elections. That may be a mistake given my previous paragraph, but here goes:

The United States is essentially center-right in their political affiliations during most recent presidential elections. During the 2004 presidential election, the Democratic party nominated an obvious liberal named John Kerry. Kerry turned out to be easy fodder for Republicans due to his long record of anti-war activity. Some of that anti-war activity occured before he resigned his US Navy Officer commission. This is not something easily reconciled with those who have served, or have had family members who served in the military. That, and the fact that Kerry was viewed as something of an elitist (oh, my - there's that word again) prevented him from winning the election.

Here is why Obama is not winning, in breathless liberal talking points:

 1) Iraq should be more of a factor in this election! Yes, but not in the way you might think. We are in better shape in Iraq, and the Iraqi government has determined that Iraq will shoulder the majority of responsibility for Iraq within a matter of months. Eventually, and relatively soon, combat troops will leave at multiple-battalion levels per-month.

2) The economy is certainly going to doom McCain! Well, that is problematic as well. The economy has continued to expand each quarter. Based on what all economists who actually pass Economics 101 (that would evidently not include any of Barack Obama's economists), a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction. The only issues right now are energy prices (primarily gas prices) and unemployment data. We recently moved into the 6% range in national unemployment, and gas prices will be rising due to hurricane Ike. The issue of jobs might play into Obama's themes (marginally), but gas - and by extension oil - falls firmly in the McCain-Palin purview.

3) Gas costs over $3.50 per gallon! Which is why energy plays well for Republicans. How can "all of the above" not be the best policy for the United States? Drill, make big windmill farms, build nuclear reactors, invest in "real" biofuels (this means, stop giving corn biofuel subsidies - corn has a net-zero, or worse - carbon reduction because of the high energy wasted to produce ethanol from it), hydroelectric (has the Mississippi been tapped?) and natural gas.

4) America deserves better! I absolutely agree...which is why I will be voting for McCain-Palin, and not Obama-Biden. I'm sick of old ideas repackaged into new-sounding trial runs. I know when government largesse runs amuck I am losing money...