Rich on the Road

I feel a little like Forrest Gump today, looking back at John McCain's presidential campaign.  I haven't covered politics as much this time around but I seem to have stumbled into the key moments of the Arizona Senator's run -- and Phil Gramm was always there -- until now.

The high point came back in March, when Sen. McCain clinched the nomination on the night of the Texas primary.  He chose to celebrate at the Fairmont Hotel in Dallas.  I was assigned to the event.  It's always fun to cover the winners and the McCain people put on a good show.  I was looking to fill a little air time and spied former Texas Senator Phil Gramm walking by.  He's always been a willing and interesting interview.

On camera, Gramm shed light on another moment I'd briefly shared with McCain -- the low point of the campaign.  Almost a year earlier McCain had come to Dallas, hat in hand, for a fund raising event.  He was trailing Rudy Giuliani in the polls, unable to raise money and having just cleaned house with his campaign staff.  He needed money and some deep-pocket Republicans here were willing to give it to him.  I'd been the only local TV reporter to bother covering his Dallas visit.  Most everyone else thought he was on the verge of dropping out of the race.

As Gramm told the story, when McCain's campaign faltered he turned to his former colleague from Texas for wise counsel.   It was the advice he'd given McCain (and the money he helped him raise) that enabled the turn around and set McCain on a new course that led to the nomination.  I don't recall all of the advice Gramm claimed he'd imparted -- but, clearly, he thought what he'd told his old friend had made the difference.  New strategies, different focus.  And, it may well have.  McCain certainly went from also-ran to winner.

Now Phil Gramm is gone -- at least from a visible role in McCain's run for the White House.  He's quit the campaign, a victim of ill-chosen words that are seen as having damaged McCain.  Here's what Gramm said in a statement issued along with his resignation as campaign Co-Chairman.

“It is clear to me that Democrats want to attack me rather than debate Senator McCain on important economic issues facing the country.  That kind of distraction hurts not only Senator McCain’s ability to present concrete programs to deal with the country’s problems, it hurts the country.”

Phil Gramm's sin was dismissing the troubled economy as "a mental recession" and saying the US has become "a nation of whiners."  Democrats have used that to portray Republicans as out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans -- with those who've lost jobs,  can't pay their mortgage, see their retirement funds disappear, or struggle with $4 gasoline.

Phil Gramm has always polarized people -- few are neutral on the man.  You either love him or hate him.  It reminds me of a line that Democrat Jim Hightower (former Texas Agriculture Commissioner) used to deliver, faithfully, at every campaign rally when he was running for Senate and trying to unseat Gramm.

"Some people claim," Hightower drawled, "that Phil Gramm is his own worst enemy."

Hightower would scan the crowd with a scowl on his face, shake his head slowly.  And, with perfect timing, deliver the punch line.

"Not while I'm alive he ain't!"

Rich

Right about now John McCain and Barack Obama are praying for deliverance -- from their friends.

 CHICAGO (AP) - Comedian Bernie Mac endured some heckling and a campaign rebuke during a surprise appearance Friday night at a fundraiser for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Toward the end of a 10-minute standup routine at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in downtown Chicago, the 50-year-old star of "The Bernie Mac Show" joked about menopause, sexual infidelity and promiscuity, and used occasional crude language.

Obama told Mac to "clean up his act next time" and his campaign is doing damage control

 "Sen. Obama told Bernie Mac that he doesn't condone these statements and believes what was said was inappropriate," spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement after the event.

John McCain has a "friend problem" of his own -- former Texas Senator Phil Gramm.  Newsweek's Howard Fineman had a good take on that:

This was supposed to be John McCain's week to re-re-launch his campaign, this time with a tightly focused message about the economy and how he plans to fix it. He had a nicely staged debut in Denver, even if the experts quickly demanded to know how he could preserve George Bush's tax cuts, stay in Iraq and yet balance the federal budget by 2013. Details, details! Still, McCain was back in the game.

Then a one-man thundercloud named Phil Gramm rained on McCain's Main Street parade.

In one of the more boneheaded remarks in recent presidential politics (and Gramm has uttered others) the former Texas senator declared that we are in the midst of a "mental recession" and that we have "sort of become a nation of whiners."

Oh, my.

Rich

"We wouldn't do it again."

That's what Sen. Barack Obama is telling everyone who asks about his decision to grant an exclusive interview to Access Hollywood that included his daughters.  

Honestly, I don't know what to think about it.  I guess the conventional wisdom is that children of Presidents and presidential candidates should be shielded from as much public exposure as possible.  The Clintons and the Bushes certainly did with their daughters.

Access Hollywood (seen on Fox 4 at 6:30pm weekdays) has cranked out a four-parter that began last night.  So, they are making the most of the exclusive.  Clips are also getting wide play elsewhere.  Not much news there -- except that the children are allowed to talk on camera.

Again, I don't know.  Huge lapse in judgement?  Or, not that big a deal?

I'm guessing some of you have opinions. 

Rich

The U-S Army is displaying remarkable courage and candor -- with the release today of a 696-page report, called "On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign."   It is the Army's historical account of the 18 months following President George W. Bush's declaration of the end of major combat in May 2003.

"US military operations in Iraq following the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein suffered from poor planning and lack of vision."

The study is the second in a series -- the first On Point covered the start of combat through to the ouster of Saddam in April 2003 -- and is described by the authors as "neither triumphant nor defeatist."

"Military leaders and civilian officials were fixated on military triumph and removing Saddam from power, but paid too little attention to the phases that would follow."

This largely backs up what a large number of dissident generals have been saying for several years -- that Donald Rumsfeld and others in the administration totally misread the situation, sent in far too few troops, should never have disbanded the Iraqi Army and generally botched the whole situation.   It's particularly tough on Generally Tommy Franks.

Some who read this will surely be tempted to blast me for having dared to write on the topic.  Go ahead if you must.  But,  I just think this is really remarkable -- that Army historians clearly have not tried to sugar coat anything.  They have truly (it seems to me) tried to provide "military professionals with a means to understand important and relevant lessons from the army's recent operational experience."

The conclusion that we botched the end game in Iraq is no longer a partisan one.  In fact, John McCain has been saying the same thing for years now. 

What this report says about the United States is that even when we make mistakes we are capable of admitting them.  Hopefully, learning from them.

Rich

The wildest governor's race I can remember is back in the news -- nearly two decades later.  In 1990 Republican oil man Clayton Williams came out of nowhere politically and won the GOP nomination.  He roared to a 20 point lead over Democrat Ann Richards in the polls.  And, then.  He. Blew. It.

Told a terribly offensive joke about rape.  Refused to shake Ann Richards hand at a Dallas event.  Said and did a whole series of things that turned voters off.  On election night (with the polls still showing him in the lead) he was shockingly defeated.

What's brought Clayton back into the spotlight is a decision by Senator John McCain to cancel a Williams led fundraiser in Midland today -- apparently because reporters raised a few questions about some of the controversial things Clayton said back in 1990.  The rape joke, for example.

Okay.  Claytie (always a pleasant guy to be around, no matter what you thought of his politics) made mistakes and said dumb things.  But, he didn't do anything illegal.  He just made political blunders.  I'm, frankly, surprised that Senator McCain would cancel the fundraiser.

We'd like to ask him about it while he's in Dallas tonight (for a couple of fundraisers he didn't cancel) but his Press people tell us there will be "no media availability."  I'll be stalking him anyway.  And, filing reports at 5 & 6.  Probably for 9 & 10 too.

See you on TV.  Meantime, I thought this might spark some discussion.  Do you think McCain is overreacting on this one?  Or, maybe not?

Rich

I've been asked to pontificate a bit on the ongoing Veepstakes for John McCain and Barack Obama  -- to pick five candidates for each.  Something the web team is working on.  I tried to have a little fun with it.  Do not try this on TV.

Democrat Veep Stakes -- Five Candidates

Senator Hillary Clinton
Pro
I wrote weeks ago that, in the end, Senator Obama will swallow hard and put Senator Clinton on the ticket.  It's all about uniting the party and securing Democratic women who've invested so much in Hillary.  They probably won't vote for John McCain.  But, they might stay home and not vote at all.
Con
You'd certainly have to keep Hillary and Michelle on separate schedules. 

Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Pro
This might solidify Hispanic support for Obama, which still looks a little shaky.  Richardson is experienced and well liked (except by the Clintons who see him as traitorous).
Con
Richardson is not  well known and does not have an Hispanic surname so for voters who aren't plugged in it may not make much difference.  And, he doesn't solve the disappointed-that-Hillary-isn't-on-the-ticket problem.

Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona
Pro
She's a woman.
Con
She's not Hillary

Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas
Pro
She's a woman.
Con
She's not Hillary and Kansas has a lot less electoral votes than Arizona.

Virginia Sen. Jim Webb
Pro
War hero.  Conservative democrat.
Con
Not a woman.  See above.

Republican Veepstakes - Five Candidates

Mike Huckabee
Pro
Could get Evangelicals excited, the folks who helped elect George Bush.  He and McCain genuinely like each other. 
Con
Most of America (see President Bush's approval ratings) is pretty gun shy about the last Evangelical they elected.   And, Presidential candidates almost never choose somebody they actually like.

Mitt Romney
Pro
Conservatives like him even if McCain really doesn't.
Con
He's changed positions so many times on issues like Gay rights and abortion that he might be vulnerable to flip-flop attacks.

Condoleezza Rice
Pro
She's not Hillary
Con
Her first name is really hard to spell and, well, you got that people-want-change problem.  She's been hanging around Dick Cheney a lot.

Florida Governor Charlie Christ
Pro
Florida is a crucial swing state.
Con
Charlie Who?

Ron Paul
Pro
Hey, he would be interesting!  He can raise a lot of money.
Con
The rest of the GOP would vote for the Libertarian candidate. 

Rich

The drum beat gets louder.  Hillary Clinton knows she can't win the nomination but is determined to muscle her way into the VP slot on Barack Obama's ticket.  I think she succeeds, creating a Kennedy/Johnson sort of ticket where the two running mates can't stand each other.  Or, at least, where the top guy's wife hates the VP on the ticket.  Keep those two women apart at all costs.  At least, from what I hear and read.

Here's a small portion of a story from Politico:

It is possible to muscle your way into a vice presidential nod: You have something the nominee wants, and he has to give it to you.

The question is: Does Hillary Clinton have that kind of muscle?

Her victories in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia and her strength with women and white working-class voters have fueled the argument that Barack Obama must put her on the ticket if he wins the nomination and wants those states and those votes in the fall.

And, as a senior Obama adviser told me Wednesday, some Clinton supporters are “pushing real, real hard to get her on the ticket.”

There's also an effort called VoteBoth - heavily weighted with Clinton supporters -- that's promoting an Obama/Clinton ticket.  Former NY Governor Mario Cuomo is among those who've lent their support to it.

The VoteBoth website has a wonderful picture of the two, looking so warm and fuzzy together.  Awwww.  Isn't that sweet?  But, I bet the backroom wrangling gets ugly.  And, in the end, that Obama swallows hard and makes the decision that his best hope of winning is to let Hillary muscle her way in.

Rich

Something happened Tuesday night in Mississippi that, potentially, has far wider ramifications than the ongoing Obama/Clinton soap opera.   The bottom line there is that Obama has the numbers and Clinton must soon admit the inevitable and drop out.

I must admit that I missed the bigger story until today when I started surfing some of the political blogs and news sites.  Another GOP seat was lost in Mississippi Tuesday night -- a seat that not long ago was considered a Republican lock.  Drudge and others claim Republican big wigs are shocked and dismayed at what it could mean for the party this fall.  Something has to be done, many of them are saying, to reverse course. 

This from Real Clear Politics:

In a major blow to national Republicans, a Mississippi congressional seat that once voted for President Bush by a twenty-five point margin elected a Democrat on Tuesday. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers beat out Republican candidate Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, by a 54%-46% margin, a spread that several Republican strategists on Capitol Hill characterized as a startling wake-up call for a party in dire straits.

This from Financial Times:

"...the Democratic win in Mississippi on Tuesday delivered the third consecutive Republican congressional defeat in otherwise safe districts following a recent loss in Louisiana and in the Illinois district of Dennis Hastert, the former Republican speaker...
“Since 1980 I have not seen a terrain so tilted against one party as it is against the Republicans in 2008,” says Norman Ornstein, a political analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

I suspect that there will be some real soul searching over the next couple of months as Republicans try to figure out how to change the momentum.  Democrats have been successful where they can tie their opponents to the White House.  Dick Cheney campaigned for the Republican in Mississippi and most think that was big mistake.  I'm not sure how big a role he played.  President Bush is very unpopular now but the disapproval numbers are just as bad for Congress as a whole.

The bottom line is that Republicans know they have to do something different than what they've done in these special elections.  Figuring out what ... that's the challenge.  We'll all be watching.

Rich

It's always dangerous to discuss politics and religion.  Today I'm going to tackle both.  And, urge every Christian to read An Evangelical Manifesto.  It was released earlier this week by more than 70 theologians, clergy and Christian leaders and, in effect, seeks to reclaim the name 'Evangelical" from the clenched fists of those who have sullied it in the name of POLITICS. Here's a small portion: 

North Carolina and Indiana are going as expected -- one for Obama, the other for Clinton -- insuring that the Democrats will continue to bloody each other a while longer.

But, in the interest of fairness, I thought I better offer up Hillary's Top Ten on Letterman.  Not as funny as Obama's, in my humble opinion, but blame Letterman's comedy writers for that I guess. 

Her delivery and comedic timing was every bit as good as his.  Maybe they have a future in late night TV if this politics thing doesn't work out.

Rich

Just for fun -- here's Barack Obama reading his own Top Ten on Letterman the other night.  The guy is certainly relaxed and confident on camera.  He's in a class with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton -- the best two pure communicators we've seen in the White House in recent decades.

Rich

Fairmont Hotel

Dallas

The networks are gun shy and won't do much with exit polling but if you know where to look the numbers are available.  Network anchors will also broadly hint.

Here's the scoop:  Exit polling in Ohio and Texas shows the same thing.  Too close to call.  Obama and Clinton neck and neck.  This could be a very long night.  Espcially, when you factor in the caucuses.  Long night.

On the Republican side, McCain will win all four states.

Just our little secret.

Rich

A little mystery is developing here at the Fairmont Hotel where John McCain and Republicans are scheduled to party tonight.  Engineer Ron Ford reports seeing about a hundred protestors "all painted up, grunge looking folks with a sign that said "Doomsday is Coming."

The problem is we can't find them now.  They circled the building and then disappeared.  Maybe they'll come back and liven things up around here.  I'm scheduled to do live shots from now until whenever and not much will happen until after the polls close and results start coming in. 

Anyway, we've lost our protestors for the time being, at least.  If we find them, we'll let you know.

Rich

Journalists are notoriously weak at math.  But, even I can do the numbers on this one.

Delegates Needed to Clinch GOP Nomination          1,191

Delegates McCain Already Has                                   1,014

Delegates At Stake Tonight                                             256

Delegates McCain Won't Get Tonight                      Darn Few

Result                                             
                               McCain is King

                                                                                       (GOP Nominee)

My guess is that Mike Huckabee finally drops out.  If not tonight then tomorrow.  McCain is expected to win and win big in all four states tonight.  It will be a shock if he doesn't.

I'm covering the GOP party tonight at the Fairmont in Dallas.  We'll start doing live coverage on the web at 4pm.  See you on TV.

Rich