Studley's Blog

FINALLY!  A "Tell It To Tim" I can blog about.

Y'all have seen me here with the NFL Picks blog entries, but my true passion is College Football.  How much do I love it?  Well, would you....

 - Fly from DFW to Seattle watch a Pacific-10 Conference game (USC-Washington), even though the team you root for (LSU) is in the Southeastern Conference? (September 2007)

 - Wear LSU gear to the above Pac-10 game, illiciting stares from practically everyone there, and jeers from some USC fans who didn't care for LSU or the SEC?

 - Call your parents from Greece (knowing the seven-hour time difference) and ask them to put the TV on to tell you what the score of the Florida-Georgia Game is? (October 2007)

 - Set your Wake-up Time in your hotel in Paris, France to check the Auburn-LSU game score, then rush to get ready for your flight after that because you spent time hollering so loudly you almost woke up the entire hotel after finding out LSU won in Overtime?  (October 2005)

Okay, enough.  You can see the passion.  Or the craziness.  Speaking of which, let's talk about the Bowl Championship Series (BCS)....

First:  Tim, it's NOT "a computer" that produces the rankings.  I love ya, but get that fact straight.

The rankings, which, by the way, are compiled, produced and posted for release right here in the Metroplex for the BCS by the Irving-based National Football Foundation, are actually a composite score of averages from three sources:

1.  Harris Interactive Poll - A human-based poll administered by a "panel" of former college athletes, coaches, administrators, and curent and former media.  

2.  USA Today Coaches' Poll - A human-based poll administered by a "panel" of current college coaches.  That's right, the coaches vote for teams, including their own.  (Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops did not vote in this week's poll, nor did his brother, Arizona Coach Mike Stoops, citing the need for impartiality.) 

3.  Six different computer models - The six computer ranking providers are Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin and Peter Wolfe. Each computer ranking provider takes a team's Strength of Schedule (whether they are playing quality teams or cupcakes to get their wins) within their formulas.

The highest and lowest of those averages are dropped, therefore, only four of the six computer models are used for each team's computer-based average for any single week .

Each source above counts for one-third of a team's BCS score, which then are totaled and arranged in descending order from first to last.

In other words, it's an average.  Of an average.

Those of us who crunch numbers for a living (present company included) will tell you right off that doing this is extremely wonky.  When you cook numbers down in this fashion, you don't get a true apples-to-apples comparison of the data segments you're looking for. 

ESPN College Gameday this past Saturday profiled all of the computer ranking providers except Wolfe, who declined to be interviewed.  They aren't your typical computer geeks.  These guys like sports, and just add their love for math to it.  One is a Medical Doctor (Wolfe), one is a speechwriter who works in the DC Beltway (Anderson of Anderson and Hester), and one is a retired business consultant with no formal college education (Billingsley).

Here is the link to that segment:   http://videos.espn.com/m/video/21537069/behind_the_bc
s_rankings.htm?pageid=14063  

The most notable of the providers is Sagarin, who has been at this the longest.  His rankings on many sports are found in USA Today.  http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm <
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Second:  While everyone don't like that this system is how we determine an in-essence Mythical National Champion, it's better than where we were 10-20 years ago.  The system gets things right much more than in the past.  And the top two teams according to the system get to play in a Championship Game.

Third:  The current BCS rulemakers (the college and university leaders, the commissioners of the conferences, and the media providers, of which Fox are included) love the system because it places a greater emphasis on the Regular Season.  And the system retains all of the traditional Bowl Games we know and love.

Every game matters.  Every game counts.  Lose, and possibly miss out on the chance to play for the title.  There is a playoff-like atmosphere every week. 

That kind of environment can make you do things like fly to Seattle to see teams from another conference (USC were ranked #1 and LSU #2 at the time), call parents from 7500 miles away to check on scores, or wake up an entire hotel in France.  Although I don't know anyone who has done anything like that.  Do you?

Even a matchup between Louisiana Tech at Hawaii in Mid-September means something in the BCS Standings to someone in West Virginia or Nebraska.  Look at Saturday's Oklahoma-Oklahoma State Game.  Played in Late November, in Primetime, during Sweeps, on Thanksgiving Weekend.  Usually Saturday Night programming doesn't amount to much, but it did to many this past weekend. 

With a $17 Million payout, (and for a second team from the same conference, an additional $4.5 Million) you want to know whether your team will get to a BCS game.  The Baylor-Texas Tech Game on Saturday was just as important as the Bedlam Game (OU-OSU).

Baylor.  This is NOT, REPEAT, NOT a typo.

Baylor.

When were THEY last relevant to anything concerned with College Football?  Mike Singletary's time, you say?

They have a dynamic and talented Quarterback now, and nearly pulled off the upset in Lubbock.  In fact, had they won, Texas would have been declared the Champion of the Big 12 South Division, and we wouldn't be having this debate over Texas and OU.  That's how relevant Baylor were to the BCS this year.

Bowl Games are still important in the eyes of many - even the Independence Bowl in Shreveport gets some love, because cities will have an influx of tourist fans and athletes to spend money there.  Companies like PetroSun will have an outlet to advertise.  The networks will have an outlet to advertise programming and products. 

Fourth:  The aforementioned school administrators don't want Football Season to carry on into the Spring Semester, citing the need to protect the student-athletes.  Therefore, the season has to end in Early January.  So this system will remain in place until at the earliest, 2015, based on the contracts and agreements signed this year.

Barack Obama, on Election Day, even argued for a playoff, which I thought was shrewd and very cool of him.  But even after he takes office, he stands a much better chance of reaching Peace Accords with Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, and improving relations with Venezuela, Syria, and Cuba, than he does of changing the BCS into a playoff.

Will it ever change?  Maybe.  But not right now.  So we have to enjoy it as best as we possibly can until then.  On January 7 of this year, I certainly did, when LSU won it all.

Okay everyone, this is your time to chime in.  Discuss and debate. Tell It To Tim.

If you love close games, you're certainly getting your fill of them this season.

More on that later.  First, let's get down to business.

10-4 last week.  67-48 for the season so far.  Much better, but I can't lose the focus I worked on regaining last week.

There have been many more close games this early in the season.  It seems that there have a lot of injuries to key players, and they are happening much earlier than normal.

A study of the games played to this point in the season yields some interesting numbers.

Through Week 8, there have been a total of 17 games of the 116 played so far (remember that BAL - HOU was rescheduled due to Hurricane Ike) that were what I term as blowouts, with the score differential for the winning team being 22 or greater points. That's about 14.6 percent, on average, for major beatdowns that would require more than three touchdowns to win.  

47 games had a differential of 7 or fewer points, a roughly 40.5 percent average.  Those are the last-second or Overtime games. 

The remaining 53 games (just over 45.7 percent) were in what I term as the midrange category, with scoring differentials between 8 and 21 points.  Those games require at least two touchdowns to win or three to tie.

Enough of the math for now.  The bottom line is, most of the games to date have been extremely close, and could have gone either way, as I have usually noted.

Greg Cosell has an excellent piece in The Sporting News that goes a long way to explain another possible reason behind the trend, from a play scenario perspective.  http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Al
9HPsz.WUAAXBGu.jSNl_5DubYF?slug=loadinguptherungameando
t&prov=tsn&type=lgns   

On to the picks.  After traveling to London, New Orleans and San Diego have the week off, along with San Francisco and Carolina.  Here we go....

Buffalo over New York Jets

Cincinnati over Jacksonville - It's not the Upset of the Week (that's below), but the Bengals should have the cold-weather advantage over the Florida-based Jaguars.

Cleveland over Baltimore - The Browns' fans will always be upset that they were abandoned by what was their former team, the Ravens.  This game is personal to them, and the hatred emanating from the Dog Pound will swirl around with the wind in the stadium.

Minnesota over Houston

UPSET OF THE WEEK - Detroit over Chicago - Against my better judgment, I'm picking the Lions.  But it's only because the Bears always trip themselves up at the wrong times.  This is as good a time as any, because they may also be caught looking ahead to next week's game with at-present undefeated TEN.

Tampa Bay over Kansas City - The clock is probably ticking on Herman Edwards' tenure as Head Coach.  I like him for his personality and approach, but he's simply not getting it done in KC.

Arizona over St. Louis - The Cardinals are slowly sneaking up on everyone.

Tennessee over Green Bay - I think this will be the last week that the Titans go undefeated.  My guess is that CHI, after being upset by lowly DET, will play angry next week.  Hopefully, TEN won't be caught looking ahead to that game.

Denver over Miami

New York Giants over Dallas

Philadelphia over Seattle

Atlanta over Oakland

New England over Indianapolis - The Patriots are winning so quietly, no one's even talking about them.

GAME OF THE WEEK - Washington over Pittsburgh - The Steelers one of the elite teams in the AFC, but they can't seem to beat the teams in the best division in the NFC, the East.  First it was the Eagles, and last week, it was the Giants.  This week, the Redskins get their turn to dominate. 

Focus, focus....

More on that later.  First, let's get down to business.

8-6 last week.  57-44 for the season so far.  Not bad, but I still have to get back on track with a good week.

And that requires focus, leading me to ask you, the Blogosphere, this question:

Which teams, in your opinion, have shown the focus necessary to win the title?

To me, I've been very impressed with Tennessee and Buffalo in the AFC, while the New York Giants and Washington Redskins have stood out in the NFC.  Recall that I have posted previously that WAS have had lots of talent, but lacked the focus necessary to win consistently.  They now seem to have found it.

Not to be left out are the Carolina Panthers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.  It's still early, but you can see a few trends.     

On to the picks.  Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, and Minnesota have the week off.  Here we go....

Baltimore over Oakland

Carolina over Arizona

Tampa Bay over Dallas

Washington over Detroit - No love for the Lions.  They could easily go 0-16 this year.

Buffalo over Miami

New England over St. Louis

New Orleans over San Diego - Let's hope this year's London Bowl will be better than the game last year.  The Saints have the edge since they flew to London from Carolina, much closer than the Chargers, who were at home in SD last week.

New York Jets over Kansas City

Philadelphia over Atlanta

UPSET OF THE WEEK - Cincinnati over Houston - This is the week the Bengals finally get their first win.  If they don't, they could also be headed for The Land of 0-16.  Talking about focus, the Texans have a nice little two-game win streak going. 

Jacksonville over Cleveland

GAME OF THE WEEK - New York Giants over Pittsburgh - I'd love to see a high-scoring game, and this could be it.  Then again, the defenses may rule, and points will be difficult to score. 

Seattle over San Francisco

Tennessee over Indianapolis - This one will be extremely close, maybe by one point.  The Colts could give the shocker and win, prompting the Cristal to flow on South Beach for the 1972 Dolphins.

Last weekend was unkind, in more ways than one.

More on that later.  First, let's get down to business.

5-9 last week.  49-38 for the season so far.  Gotta regroup and get things back on track, just like LSU have to do, and definitely like the Cowboys have to do.

As I anticipated, NFL Commissioner Roger Goddell suspended CB Adam "Pacman" Jones indefinitely for violation of the league's Personal Conduct Policy.  The team is in dire need of help in the Secondary, in my opinion.

Injuries are taking their toll on teams a lot sooner than normal, it seems, making so many more games close.  Lots of teams at the bottom were able to improve their standing by beating some of the top teams last week. 

On to the picks.  Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Jacksonville have the week off.  Here we go....

Buffalo over San Diego

Carolina over New Orleans

Chicago over Minnesota

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

Tennessee over Kansas City - The Titans are the league's last unbeaten team this season.  But the 1972 Dolphins already have the Cristal chilling in the fridge, since this won't last for too much longer.

Miami over Baltimore - Wow, I never thought I'd be picking the Dolphins to win anything.  But their Offense has looked pretty good this season.

New York Giants over San Francisco

Dallas over St. Louis - The Rams upset the Redskins last week.  They'll have a "hangover" from this, making them an easy target for the Cowboys in a close game.  

Detroit over Houston - Wow, the Dolphins, and now DET?  Well, the Texans are also going to experience a "hangover" from winning their first game last week.  Now, it's the Lions' turn to win. 

Indianapolis over Green Bay

New York Jets over Oakland

Washington over Cleveland - The Browns are also in the "hungover" crowd, from their thrashing of the Giants last week.  The Redskins will play angry and take it out on them after losing to the Rams.

Tampa Bay over Seattle

Denver over New England

Will he or won't he?

More on that later. First, let's get down to business.

9-5 last week.  44-29 for the season so far.  A few games here and there, and I would have started my week of Vay-Cay with a perfect 14-0.  Time to hopefully improve on that this week.  Based on where the teams are at present, there are some real "dogs" of games on the schedule.  There are better matchups the day before, in College Football's "Showdown Saturday".   

The question on everyone's mind at present:  Will NFL Commissioner Roger Goddell re-suspend Adam "Pacman" Jones for the recent incident he was involved in, or will he let this go?

Goddell doesn't strike me as one who is going to tolerate any foolishness, given all of the things he has done since becoming Comissioner.  So I won't be surprised if Pacman is re-suspended.  Jerry Jones is certainly arguing his case for it not to happen.   

If it does, then what will happen in the Cowboys' Secondary?  Terence Newman is already out for a minimum of six weeks with a sports hernia injury.  Roy Williams and Patrick Watkins are already out with injuries, although Keith Davis played well filling in for Watkins last week. 

This is going to be interesting to see how this plays itself out.  Stay tuned.          

On to the picks.  A lot of these games I just want to say "PASS" on, but the weekly challenge is perfection, so I just have to tough it out.  As always, please feel free to make any picks you want here.

Buffalo, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh all have the week off.  Here we go....

Chicago over Atlanta

Houston over Miami - If there is a week that the Texans can finally get a win, it's this one.

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Minnesota over Detroit - If the Vikings have a letdown after the Monday Night comeback at NO, then the Lions will get their first win of the season.

New Orleans over Oakland

Cincinnati over New York Jets - This could also be the Bengals' week to get their first win.

GAME OF THE WEEK - Carolina over Tampa Bay

Washington over St. Louis

Denver over Jacksonville

Dallas over Arizona

Philadelphia over San Francisco

Seattle over Green Bay - This will be close, and can go either way.  The WR position for SEA is thin due to injuries, so they plan to run the ball against a GB defense that hasn't yet proven that they can stop the run. 

New England over San Diego

New York Giants over Cleveland

I missed you guys.

More on that later. First, let's get down to business.

6-7 last week.  35-24 for the season so far.  Gotta get my groove back before things turn ugly here. 

The "you guys" I was referring to were the FOX4 Anchors and Reporters.  You see, my TV went out on Friday night. 

DURING the Debate.

Yuck.

No live news to watch.  The worst thing in all of this is that I missed watching my beloved College Football.  ESPN360 is okay, but, any website that tells you in its FAQ that it's prone to failure is sketchy at best.

I "watched" the WAS-DAL Game using Yahoo GameChannel for the stats and ESPN Radio 980 for the play-by-play.  The Redskins Radio Network was an adventure listening to, and after the Onside Kick recovery, I turned it off.  I simply didn't want to listen to the announcers gloat.

Thanks to York TV, I'm now back in action.  And I missed y'all.  (I really missed all of you, you know that.)  And I can watch all of the TV I want on my vacation next week.

Speaking of which, Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, and the New York Jets all have the week off.  Here we go....

Tennessee over Baltimore

Carolina over Kansas City

Chicago over Detroit

Green Bay over Atlanta

Indianapolis over Houston

San Diego over Miami

New York Giants over Seattle

Washington over Philadelphia

GAME OF THE WEEK - Denver over Tampa Bay

Buffalo over Arizona

Dallas over Cincinnati

New England over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New Orleans over Minnesota